The Economic Stress in December 2018 was preliminary at 1.39. The lower the index, the better the economy is. The historical annual average of the ESI (1973 through 2017) is 7.28
Underemployment (the U-6) averaged 7.23% the last three months ending with the December 2018 jobs report released early January 2019, and Gross Domestic Product (“The Economy”) was 3.00% higher the last quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier. Household Income was 2.84% higher the last three months (October-November-December) compared to the same three months a year earlier.
The U-6 counts the regular unemployed (known as the official Unemployment Rate or U-3), plus those marginally attached to the workforce (halfway looking for jobs) and also those who have part time jobs because they can’t find full-time jobs due to the state of the economy. This is basically the broadest measure of the unemployment picture in the US. The monthly Economic Stress Index uses a rolling 3-month average of the Seasonally Unadjusted U-6.
The percent change in GDP of the latest quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier. In the Annual section it is the annual percent change in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the current year compared to the full year before.
We look at the year over year change in Disposal Personal Income for the monthly report and at Household Income by the Census for the annual report. The monthly report looks at a three-month average, such as this year’s fist quarter compared to last year’s first quarter, while the annual report compares the full year-over-year change. (Until 2020, we used the monthly Household Income data from Sentier Research for the monthly report. However, Sentier stopped releasing it so we are using Disposal Personal Income minus government transfers such as social security payments. The report is released monthly by the Commerce Department.)