================2019 August================

As Of August 2019 The Economic Stress Index is:

4.06

Underemployment: 7.3
GDP: 2.27
Household Income: 0.97

The Economic Stress for August 2019 is 4.06; up from 3.71 in July; 3.63 in June and 2.71 in May. The lower the index, the better the economy is. The historical annual average of the ESI (1973 through 2018), is 7.17

Underemployment (the U-6) averaged 7.30% in the last three months ending with the July 2019 jobs report released early August 2019, and Gross Domestic Product (“The Economy”) was 2.27% higher the last quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier. Household Income was 0.97% higher in the last three months (June-July-August) compared with the same three months a year earlier according to Sentier Research.

An economic number that reflects a bad part of the economy (such as Underemployment) adds to the ESI, and economic numbers which reflect a good part of the economy (such as the GDP and Household Income both rising) reduces the ESI. Hence, the ESI for August 2019 adds up as follows:

7.30 is the base number; reflecting Underemployment

2.27 is deducted to reflect the economic growth

Another 0.97 is deducted to reflect Household Income growth

= 4.06 which is the Economic Stress Index for August 2019.

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U6 Explanation

The U-6 counts the regular unemployed (known as the official Unemployment Rate or U-3), plus those marginally attached to the workforce (halfway looking for jobs), plus those who have part time jobs because they can’t find full-time jobs due to the state of the economy. The monthly Economic Stress Index uses a rolling 3-month average of the Seasonally Unadjusted U-6.

GDP Explanation

The percent change in GDP of the latest quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier. In the Annual section it is the annual percent change in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the current year compared to the year before.

Income Explanation

The three month average income level change from the same three months a year earlier. In the Annual section, it is the income level change of the current year compared to the proceeding year. The monthly numbers are from Sentier Research. The Annual number is preliminary until the Census releases its annual report.