The Economic Stress Index in September 2018 is 1.40. The lower the index, the better the economy is. The historical annual average of the ESI (1973 through 2017), is 7.28.
Underemployment (the U6) averaged 7.46 the last three months ending with the September jobs report released early October, and Gross Domestic Product (“The Economy”) was 3.03% higher the last quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier. Household Income, per Sentier Research, was 3.03% higher the last three months (July-August-September) compared to the same three months a year earlier.
The September 2018 Index adds up as follows:
7.46 Underemployment is the base number
Deduct 3.03 for the 3.03% year over year positive GDP
Deduct 3.03 for the estimated 3.03% positive Household Income
The U-6 counts the regular unemployed (known as the official Unemployment Rate or U-3), plus those marginally attached to the workforce (halfway looking for jobs), plus those who have part time jobs because they can’t find full-time jobs due to the state of the economy. The monthly Economic Stress Index uses a rolling 3-month average of the Seasonally Unadjusted U-6.
The percent change in GDP of the latest quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier. In the Annual section it is the annual percent change in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the current year compared to the year before.
The three month average income level change from the same three months a year earlier. In the Annual section, it is the income level change of the current year compared to the proceeding year. The monthly numbers are from Sentier Research. The Annual number is preliminary until the Census releases its annual report.