The Economic Stress Index for June 2018 is at 2.89. The lower the index, the better the economy is. The historical annual average is 7.5 (years 1973 through 2016).
Underemployment (the U6) averaged 7.60 the last three months ending with the June jobs report released early July, and Gross Domestic Product (“The Economy”) was 2.84% higher the last quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier. Household Income, per Sentier Research, was 1.87% higher the last three months (April-May-June) compared to the same three months a year earlier.
The June 2018 Index add up as follows:
7.60 Underemployment is the base number
Deduct 2.84 for the 2.84% year over year positive GDP
Deduct 1.87 for the estimated 1.87% positive Household Income
2.89 remains and thus 2.89 is the ESI for June 2018
The U-6 counts the regular unemployed (known as the official Unemployment Rate or U-3), plus those marginally attached to the workforce (halfway looking for jobs), plus those who have part time jobs because they can’t find full-time jobs due to the state of the economy. The monthly Economic Stress Index uses a rolling 3-month average of the Seasonally Unadjusted U-6.
The percent change in GDP of the latest quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier. In the Annual section it is the annual percent change in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the current year compared to the year before.
The three month average income level change from the same three months a year earlier. In the Annual section, it is the income level change of the current year compared to the proceeding year. The monthly numbers are from Sentier Research. The Annual number is preliminary until the Census releases its annual report.