The Economic Stress Index in August 2018 is at 2.58, down from 2.89 in July and down from 3.16 in June. Last year August the Index was at 5.11. The lower the index, the better the economy is. The historical annual average of the ESI (years 1973 through 2017), is 7.28 following GDP revisions done in the summer of 2018 and with the release of the House Hold Income Data of 2017.
Underemployment (the U6) averaged 7.76 the last three months ending with the July jobs report released early August, and Gross Domestic Product (“The Economy”) was 2.88% higher the last quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier. Household Income, per Sentier Research, was 2.30% higher the last three months (May-June-July) compared to the same three months a year earlier.
The U-6 counts the regular unemployed (known as the official Unemployment Rate or U-3), plus those marginally attached to the workforce (halfway looking for jobs), plus those who have part time jobs because they can’t find full-time jobs due to the state of the economy. The Economic Stress Index uses a rolling 3-month average of the U-6.
The year-over-year/12 month percent change in U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The year-over-year change in estimated Household Income based on a three month moving average.